History will be made one way or another when Rafael Nadal faces Daniil Medvedev in the men's singles final of the 2022 Australian Open in Melbourne. If sixth seed Nadal manages to win, he would set the all-time men's singles record with 21 Grand Slam titles. He is tied at 20 with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. If the No. 2 seeded Russian surpasses the Spanish giant, he will be the first to win a Grand Slam title immediately after his first. World No. 2 Medvedev, 25, won the US Open in September. The fifth-ranked 35-year-old Nadal's last Grand Slam title was the 2020 French Open, and he has won the Australian Open only once (2009). Nadal leads 3-1 in one-on-one meetings, with Medvedev winning the most recent matchup in London in 2020.
First service in Melbourne is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET. Medvedev is the -187 favorite (risk $187 to win $100) in Kaiser Sportsbook's latest Nadal vs. Medvedev odds, and Nadal is a +160 underdog (risk $100 to win 160). Kaiser has several other bets on the Medvedev vs Nadal prop, including over-under on the game total at 39.5, perfect scores that could pay off big and whether both players will win a set (yes -175, no +135). Before locking in any Nadal vs Medvedev pick or props, you need to look at the 2022 Australian Open predictions and betting advice from internationally acclaimed tennis expert Sean Calvert.
Calvert is the elite tennis handicapper who called on Stan Wawrinka to win the 2014 Australian Open 60-1 - the last Australian title won by none other than Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer. In 2019, amidst several surprise calls, Calvert took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem in an 80-1 win over Indian Wells.
And in 2021, he cashed in on both of his bets for the Wimbledon men's singles final: Djokovic beat Berrettini in three sets to win one (+275) and Djokovic and both players to win a set (+130). Anyone who follows his likes goes up.
Now, Calvert has scrutinized the latest Australian Open 2022 odds and released his coveted best bets for the Nadal vs Medvedev final. He is sharing only his Australian Open final pics and expert tennis analysis on SportsLine.
Rafael Nadal vs Daniil Medvedev Preview
The two most recent meetings were battles in the ATP Finals, both lost after blowing away chances to work for victory. Nadal lost a lot last season with a leg injury, but he has made a strong comeback. He won the warm-up tournament, beating Maxime Crécy in the final in Adelaide earlier this month, and had an easy road to get here. Medvedev was tested by Cersei and Nick Kyrgios and was two sets below Felix Auger Aliassim in his quarterfinals.
The 35-year-old Nadal lost just one set before the quarterfinals and has played 196 matches in Melbourne, while 242 for Russia. Nadal defeated Medvedev to win the 2019 US Open title and he has far more experience under this pressure. Nadal isn't known for his hard-court skills, but he has surfaced 27-5 over the past three seasons. Medvedev is known for his deep comeback position, but Nadal's varied offense has helped him capitalize on it in previous meetings.
Medvedev, however, is moving up from Djokovic to take the top ranking, and he has become arguably the best hard-court player in the world. He's 42-6 on the surface over the past two seasons, and he's in his U.S. With the confidence brought by the Open title comes. He denied Djokovic's bid to break the Grand Slam record at that event and he intends to do the same for the Spaniard. He is 10 years younger than Nadal, and with long rallies expected, he should have the edge.
He has also been tested a lot in this tournament, while Nadal hasn't played much tennis lately. The 35-year-old played just eight matches between last year's French Open and the event. Medvedev's serve is big and he has 94 aces, which is number three in the tournament. He is also a cerebral player who will propel Nadal a lot. The Spaniard doesn't have the court coverage he once did, and Medvedev's backhand is strong enough to withstand Nadal's barrage.
How to choose Nadal vs Medvedev
Calvert has analyzed Medvedev vs Nadal from all angles. He's leaning on game totals, and he has advice on other picks, too.